The 10Y Note yield is now up nearly +30 basis points in 2 days.
Prior to the last 48 hours, the last time we saw a move of this magnitude was during “Liberation Day” in April 2025.
Prior to that, we had not seen a move like this since 2022.
What the bond market is doing right now is remarkable.
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It's official.
As the bond market "meltdown" accelerates, the average interest rate on a 30Y mortgage in the US is up to 7.45%.
That's up +150 basis points in 6 months and the highest since 2023, when inflation was at 6.4%+.
What is happening? Let us explain.
(a thread)
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