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Just Another Pod Guy
@TMTLongShort
Understander of things. Economic Blitzkrieg & Decoupling โ„ข๏ธ Tech Investor. Will say retarded shit often. ๐Ÿซก
๊ฐ€์ž… February 2020
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Demand for intelligence is unlimited. Demand for Opus level intelligence is very limited. Luckily the labs have much smarter models on tap. If they want more compute they are going to have to find a way to monetize said models. Rev share and whitelisting comes next. Monetization isnโ€™t linear. Claude Code made that abundantly apparent. Side note: the ARR lab disclosure by both labs is a clusterfuck and both CFOs should do better. Regardless of the incompetence of the finance function at the labs the reality is we are ahead of schedule on scaling laws and model progress and distillation is being addressed. Lab ARR matters but is a lagging indicator vs model capabilities. That said bears are right to view that as cope near term. The truth is Ant got mogged temporarily by OAI and then by the double whammy of China distillation crackdown and META shifting away. Shit happens. You move on. That said on a forward 12-18 month basis models get much better, enterprise adoption accelerates as higher IQ agents ameliorate human bottlenecks and as labs drive race conditions that force adoption by vertical. So ARR will ofc once again accelerate. And anyone looking at neocloud unsecureds as a proofpoint re the ability to finance capex is a moron and either genuinely has done zero work on the compute capital stack or is purposefully driving fud. Which is fine. No crying in the casino. Long compute ๐Ÿซก
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