Tanaka(@Tanaka_L2):Idk why, but I’m feeling increasingly uncomfortable with the current market. Just look at what’s happening in the US economy: – inflation remains elevated at 3.4%, well above the Fed’s 2% target – Brent crude is still trading around $100/barrel – US 10Y Treasury yield is around 5.2%, after recently hitting its highest level since 2002 – US added only 29K jobs in September, suggesting the labor market is losing momentum Yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just hit new ATHs on Oct 6. Even more concerning, the Magnificent 7 now account for 34.9% of the S&P 500's total weight. Meanwhile, crypto had a solid rally in recent weeks, although BTC and most alts are now showing signs of weakness. The disconnect between economic conditions and asset valuations is getting harder to ignore. Ofc, strong AI earnings expectations and market liquidity could keep equities elevated for longer than expected. But how much longer can this divergence last? I’m leaning toward a significant market correction before another sustainable rally. If we get a big dip, $BTC $ETH $SOL $NEAR $UNI $TAO will remain my top priorities for accumulation. I'd rather keep some dry powder than chase the market at these levels. ofc, personal thought. NFA

2026.10.09 13:03

Idk why, but I’m feeling increasingly uncomfortable with the current market. Just look at what’s happening in the US economy: – inflation remains elevated at 3.4%, well above the Fed’s 2% target – Brent crude is still trading around $100/barrel – US 10Y Treasury yield is around 5.2%, after recently hitting its highest level since 2002 – US added only 29K jobs in September, suggesting the labor market is losing momentum Yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just hit new ATHs on Oct 6. Even more concerning, the Magnificent 7 now account for 34.9% of the S&P 500's total weight. Meanwhile, crypto had a solid rally in recent weeks, although BTC and most alts are now showing signs of weakness. The disconnect between economic conditions and asset valuations is getting harder to ignore. Ofc, strong AI earnings expectations and market liquidity could keep equities elevated for longer than expected. But how much longer can this divergence last? I’m leaning toward a significant market correction before another sustainable rally. If we get a big dip, $BTC $ETH $SOL $NEAR $UNI $TAO will remain my top priorities for accumulation. I'd rather keep some dry powder than chase the market at these levels. ofc, personal thought. NFA

Tanaka@Tanaka_L2

2026.09.25 06:04

Gm, I don’t think stocks or crypto can keep holding up for much longer if the US 10Y yield stays this high. If Treasuries are paying around 5.16% with near risk-free returns, investors will naturally ask: Why take much more risk in stocks or crypto when gov bonds are already paying >5%? That creates this chain: 10Y yield ↑ → cost of capital ↑ → discount rate ↑ → valuations ↓ → liquidity preference ↑ → more pressure on risk assets. US equities are also trading at very high valuations rn, especially growth/tech names where a large part of the valuation comes from expected future cash flows. When benchmark yields move above 5%, those future cash flows get discounted harder → the P/E multiple investors are willing to pay tends to come down. Crypto faces the same issue. So if yields keep rising or stay elevated, I’ll be especially careful with high-valuation alts that still have little to no real revenue/cash flow. Personally, I’m still holding, but more cautiously rn. Main focus: $BTC and $ETH.

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