TheBigBerbowski(@TheBigBerbowski):Was talking to a friend last night about how I dislike $ORCL’s financials. I think the business itself is solid, but I told him I had no interest in buying the stock. Today, after the news and sell-off, I started a position. I might be right or wrong, but that’s not really the point. The point is, we should be flexible. New information came in, the price changed, and so did the risk/reward. Today I also sold $META, a company I believe in much more long term, to buy $ORCL, a company I rate lower fundamentally, because I currently see more upside in $ORCL over the short to medium term. Having conviction doesn’t mean becoming attached to an opinion. When the facts, price, or risk/reward change, your view should be allowed to change too. NFA

2026.09.24 19:04

Was talking to a friend last night about how I dislike $ORCL’s financials. I think the business itself is solid, but I told him I had no interest in buying the stock. Today, after the news and sell-off, I started a position. I might be right or wrong, but that’s not really the point. The point is, we should be flexible. New information came in, the price changed, and so did the risk/reward. Today I also sold $META, a company I believe in much more long term, to buy $ORCL, a company I rate lower fundamentally, because I currently see more upside in $ORCL over the short to medium term. Having conviction doesn’t mean becoming attached to an opinion. When the facts, price, or risk/reward change, your view should be allowed to change too. NFA

TheBigBerbowski@TheBigBerbowski

2026.09.24 15:36

$ORCL’s sell-off could be a buying opportunity and not because the risks disappeared, but simply because the news sound worse than than the near-term earnings impact they might cause. At roughly $135, $ORCL trades at: 17.6× adjusted run-rate P/E 16.7× FY2027 P/E 12.3× FY2028 consensus P/E The New Mexico force majeure notice reportedly seeks payment protection if Project Jupiter is delayed (not an exit). Oracle says the project remains on schedule and previously said it would not affect FY2027 guidance. If this stays an issue related to this project only, easing fears could cause a rebound without any other catalysts. What I don't like about $ORCL: ~$125B of debt, negative quarterly free cash flow and a recent $20B equity raise. IMO, a good buy at today's price if you don't mind the debt/risk.

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