가입 후 초대 링크를 공유하면 동영상 재생 및 초대 보상을 받을 수 있습니다.

TheBigBerbowski
@TheBigBerbowski
Independent research (AI infra, semis, memory + microcaps) | Background in IT, economics, product Link to my website
가입 July 2025
767 팔로잉 중    20.4K 팬
Added a bit more $AAOI this week. On trailing numbers, $AAOI looks expensive, but the valuation can change quickly if management executes on the 800G/1.6T ramp. Management is targeting $471M/month of DC transceiver revenue by mid-2027. Annualized, that is about $5.65B. If we add CATV, AAOI could be approaching a roughly $6B ARR. At today's roughly $8.4B enterprise value, AAOI would trade at only about 1.4x ARR. The table below shows what different revenue multiples would imply. I don't think AAOI automatically deserves the premium multiples of $LITE or $CRDO today. Its gross margins are around 30%, way below those businesses. If revenue approaches management's targets while margins expand, even a 2–4x sales multiple would imply a very different valuation.
더 보기