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Ryan Rossi | Horse
@TheFlowHorse
Fmr prop trader. L/S, mostly short term. Flow and Trend. Founder of @tradingstable. Dad to two girls, married one of those horse ladies. Views Not Advice.
가입 November 2017
4.1K 팔로잉 중    286.4K 팬
A few thoughts from last night’s member video. It’s an ugly market, and the pain is concentrated in the stuff a lot of us actually trade. AI infrastructure, software, AI applications, plenty of biotech. Look at how few names in those groups are above the 20, 50 or 200-day averages. It looks horrible. Zoom out and there’s still strength elsewhere. Equal weight is doing well, RSP is outperforming the cap-weighted S&P, and defensives, financials and metals have held up. A lot of what we’re seeing is rotation out of the names that were working. A couple things stand out. Oil came off hard and equities didn’t respond. That inverse relationship has been a big part of the market lately, and this time we didn’t get the relief. Earnings aren’t helping either. Apple and Palantir both beat and both traded down after hours. The frustrating part is seeing enough to get interested, then talking yourself into the rest. I did that Monday. Most names were above VWAP going into the open, volume was lighter than Friday, and it looked like we could get a bounce. We pushed through Friday’s highs, failed and rotated lower. I lowered my bar and got long anyway. Then the amended Anthropic S-1 hit and I got stopped out across the board. I can’t predict that headline, but I can control whether I take a trade that meets my rules. This one didn’t. That part is on me. What I’m looking for now is a more decisive flush at the index level. The S&P is still at the bottom of multi-month value and hasn’t really gone anywhere. VIX has been in the 20s, but we haven’t seen a real spike at the index level, capitulation volume or wide-range blowout candles. Correlations are starting to pick up, so I’d rather focus on an index trade here than keep digging through individual names. If we get that flush, with a vol spike, higher and real volume at the lows, I’m interested in a bounce that can last a few sessions. I’d want tech participating. My bigger view is still that we make new lows after that. Midterms might make things clearer. Until then, I’m keeping risk down and waiting for the trade I actually want. Monday was a reminder of what happens when I start making exceptions.
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