2026, day 263 Good morning from Asia - another 2026 day with rumours of yet more war and of rising far-left and -right populism. GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘Trump on Iran: ‘My question is, if and when do I blow the entire nation up?’’ (The Hill); ‘Iran claims US preparing to resume attacks, threatens bases, supporting regional countries’ (JPost); ‘CIA chief meets Egypt’s al-Sisi in Cairo’ (Al Arabiya); ‘What’s behind Iranian authorities’ push for a mass mobilisation campaign?’ (AJ); ‘Qatari Premier Says Gulf States Have to Act Together on Iran’ (BBG); ‘Qatar Energy Chief Says Bessent ‘Wrong’ About Hormuz Future’ (BBG) - “Bessent is “wrong” when he said that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will be worthless in two years”; ‘QatarEnergy says Hormuz crisis may delay some expansion projects’ (Reuters); ‘Houthis Push to Expand Territory as Tensions With Saudi Arabia Rise’ (NYT); ‘Trump says Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have agreed not to fight U.S.’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Pew poll finds majority of Israelis and Palestinian say two-state coexistence impossible’ (ToI); ‘Ukraine fires new ballistic missile at Moscow’ (Telegraph) - “Kyiv deploys domestically-produced weapon in largest attack on Russian capital since war began”; ‘Russia’s secret plan to supercharge kamikaze drone production’ (Politico); ‘Trump to meet with Zelensky as Russia-Ukraine attacks intensify’ (Axios); ‘European spy chiefs warn Moscow is planning more decisive action against NATO’ (Guardian); ‘Canada, France to co-operate on space launches as part of Carney’s pivot to EU’ (Globe & Mail); ‘Trump Ramps Up Bid to Dismantle International Criminal Court’ (WSJ) - “Administration prepares sweeping sanctions that would cut the court off from much of the global financial system”; ‘PM’s UN bet: Middle powers must step up as superpowers break the rules’ (AFR); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍 ✈️ ⛴️ 🚛 ‘Grassley urges Trump to place embargo on diesel exports amid high prices’ (The Hill); ‘Former WTO head Pascal Lamy on the EU’s China choice: get a rebalance, or go protectionist’ (SCMP); ‘US, China Begin Trade Talks in New York Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit’ (BBG); ‘China's trade limits continue to bite into Japan's imports of rare earths, other minerals’ (SCMP); ‘Time to lower our elbows and make a deal’ (National Post) - “The delaying tactic of refusing to renegotiate CUSMA until the current American tariffs are addressed has clearly failed”; ‘Trump’s Greenland Deal Eases Way for U.S. Business on Arctic Island’ (WSJ); ‘China's Path to Tech Self-Sufficiency Accelerating’ (BBG); ‘China’s CXMT touts new chip manufacturing platform as close to ‘world’s most advanced’’ (SCMP); POLITICS: 🗳️ ‘Far left wins in Berlin, far right in Germany’s northeast vote: Exit polls’ (AJ); ‘German chancellor Merz vows to stay on despite ‘disaster’ in regional elections’ (FT); ‘Germany’s AfD partners with radical Italian ‘sister party’’ (Telegraph) - “Senior figures join forces as part of a ‘European Right that extends beyond state borders’”; ‘Meloni announces ban on burqa and niqab in Italian schools, cap on foreign students’ (Euronews); ‘Trump says 250ft arch will be ‘military complex’ with drones and snipers’ (FT) - “President claims national security justification for controversial Washington monument”; MARKETS: 📈 ‘Sovereign wealth funds stay away from China due to lingering property woes’ (Nikkei Asia) - “US cements dominance as AI companies attract investment especially from Middle East”; ‘France's debt climbs to highest since 1978’ (Euractiv); ‘Wall Street expects US to issue about $1tn of short-term debt as borrowing costs climb’ (FT); ‘Why It’s So Hard to Work Out What the Bond Market Is Telling Us’ (WSJ) - “Did bond yields rise because the economy is strong or because America’s credibility is on the line?”; ‘Big Tech uses guarantees to keep $300bn of AI exposure off balance sheets’ (FT); ‘China slow-walks yuan appreciation as US, Europe demand trade rebalancing’ (Nikkei Asia)