UFA REFINERY COMPLEX (BASHNEFT), DRONE ATTACK CLAIM, VALIDATION 54.85, 56.10 THE CLAIM Drones attacked Ufa overnight into Saturday morning, a fire broke out at the Bashneft-Novoil refinery, and residents reported two of the three Ufa plants hit. Unit damage was claimed two ways: an ELOU-AVT crude unit in early reporting, and the L-35 catalytic reformer in ASTRA's photo analysis. THE SITE Rosneft's Ufa complex is three adjacent plants in the northern industrial zone, Ufaneftekhim, Novoil, and UNPZ, combined 23.5 million tonnes a year, about 470,000 barrels a day. Novoil makes Euro-6 gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Plant-level attribution of the fire is not yet resolvable from open sources. THERMAL RECORD, NASA FIRMS • Night passes on 10/29/26 and through the attack window are all routine: 0.6 to 2.9 MW of process heat, nothing anomalous • Daytime 10/31/26 brought two modest clusters: 4.07 MW about 3.6 km northwest of the complex center, at a standing source that read 1.41 MW on 10/29/26, and three pixels of 3.2 to 4.6 MW about 9.8 km northwest with no presence there on the two prior days • No large anomaly anywhere. A major unit fire still burning at the midday pass would read far hotter than 5 MW. The record fits a real but limited fire, contained or burned down by midday CONFIDENCE • Event real, a drone attack and a fire at Bashneft-Novoil: MODERATE to HIGH, 65 to 80% • Cause, Ukrainian drones: HIGH, 75 to 88% • Second plant hit: LOW to MODERATE, 30 to 45%. Single monitoring channel, and two of its counted fires may be routine flares • Unit damage: LOW to MODERATE, 30 to 45%. The L-35 claim rests on one analyst's photo read, the ELOU-AVT variant on weaker aggregated reporting, and the thermal record confirms no major fire • Rationale: two news outlets reporting on ASTRA's geolocation, an officially declared drone alert and airport closure on the Russian side, and a daytime thermal uptick at the complex, set against no official damage confirmation from either government CORROBORATION Kyiv Independent and Ukrainska Pravda both report the Novoil fire, citing ASTRA's analysis of eyewitness photos. ASTRA's analyst names the L-35-11/1000 catalytic reformer as likely burning, the same unit Ukraine's General Staff said it hit in August 2025. Bashkortostan's emergencies committee declared a drone threat and Ufa airport suspended operations. Russian authorities have not confirmed a hit or any damage. STATUS Event and cause are corroborated at news level. Damage stays UNVERIFIED, and the better-sourced unit claim is the L-35 reformer, not the ELOU-AVT in the early reporting. Second refinery strike in two days after a two-week pause, Novokuybyshevsk on 10/30/26, Ufa on 10/31/26.