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Memory Engineer. Data Scientist. Founder of Blue Pink Candles. Masters 🎓 @UofIllinois
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AI is still diapers
According to $TSM's HPC roadmap (SEMI Taiwan today), AI compute demand growing 5x/year, creating a "compute wall" and "memory bandwidth wall." TSMC's answer is heterogeneous integration across logic, 3D packaging, and silicon photonics.
Logic process: Moving fully to nanosheet architecture. After N2 and A16, TSMC targets A14 (angstrom class) in 2028 to 2029.
3D stacking (SoIC): In production since 2023 with 56x the interconnect density of traditional 2.5D. Roadmap is N2P on N3P in 2026, then A14 on A14 in 2029, shrinking bump pitch to 4.5 microns.
CoWoS packaging: 5.5x reticle size in 2026 (supporting 12 HBM3E/4 stacks, yield over 98%), 9.5x reticle by 2028, and over 14x reticle with 24 HBM stacks by 2029.
Combined system compute: TSMC projects SoIC plus CoWoS integration will deliver 50x the 2024 compute level by 2029.
HBM4 and the memory wall: Interface bandwidth doubles to 2048 bit. Base die built on N12, cutting power over 45% and boosting bandwidth 2.5x, with a future move to N3 for further gains. Overall memory bandwidth is projected to grow 34.6x by 2029.
COUPE (silicon photonics): 3D stacks the electronic die directly onto the photonic die via SoIC, with 2 to 4 micron bond pitch. At 112Gbps, transmission loss is just 0.06dB versus 1.38dB for microbumps, cutting latency to 10 to 20 nanoseconds. First 200Gbps micro-ring modulator (0.5 Tbps/mm density) ships in 2026, scaling to 4 Tbps/mm by 2030.
Design enablement: TSMC is building an optical PDK for electro-optic co-simulation plus automated DRC/LVS/thermal flows to speed 3D IC and photonic design.