In October 2024, Paul Tudor Jones went on CNBC and described the US bond market as a loan between friends. You make $100,000 a year. I have already lent you $700,000. Now I ask to borrow another $40,000 every year for the next 30 years, and I promise to pay the whole thing back at the end. "Would you lend me that money?" The anchor said unlikely. Jones said that is the exact proposition the US government makes to everyone who buys a 30-year bond. At the time, the US owed $35 trillion against a $5 trillion tax take, running a $2 trillion deficit as far as the eye could see. "Financial crises percolate for years, but they blow up in weeks." He said he would own zero fixed income and be short the long end, holding gold, Bitcoin, commodities and the Nasdaq instead, because every civilization in this position has taken the same exit. "All roads lead to inflation." He also pointed out the interest bill had grown larger than every line item in the federal budget except Social Security. Larger than defense. Larger than Medicare. "We're going to be broke really quickly unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues." That was 22 months ago. The debt has since passed $40 trillion, the 30-year yield just touched its highest level since 2007, and the Treasury spent last week buying back its own bonds to slow the selling. The Fed chair speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday.