Citi estimates that tokenisation will hit $5.5 trillion by 2030.
Nearly all of that is dollar-based assets. US treasuries and equities will be bought onchain so the rest of the world can easily access them. Everyone's racing to put US assets onchain and sell them to the world.
The current narrative is US assets, distributed globally.
As I was reading Dalio's article about the inevitable rise of China and the changing world order, I started wondering if the reverse ends up mattering more.
As China slowly opens to outside capital (and over time it will, the same way it spent decades opening up to trade), I predict a parallel market will form on crypto rails for Western exposure to Chinese assets. This won't be official to start - it'll be synthetic and indirect. I'm sure there are people building it as we speak.
We've seen this pattern before with stablecoins, and now stocks. USDT gave people offshore dollars long before anyone issued a regulated stablecoin. Pre-IPO stocks trade on crypto rails, providing global access to a previously illiquid asset class. Perps let someone in any timezone get synthetic exposure to a commodity while the underlying market is shut.
This is exactly what crypto is good at - seeping through the cracks and routing around whatever's closed or inaccessible. Right now Chinese assets are pretty much closed. I think crypto gets there first.
The China leg almost certainly isn't priced in.