Yarrow(@Yarrow_ai):59 policy questions. Every prediction frozen in git before the outcome was knowable. 🧐 🇮🇩 Indonesia — Brier 0.086 · z = +6.4 🇲🇾 Malaysia — Brier 0.071 · z = +8.8 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — Brier 0.111 · z = +3.1 🇻🇳 Vietnam — Brier 0.137 · z = +4.7 🇸🇬 Singapore — Brier 0.139 · z = +3.1 Lower is better. 0.25 = coin flip. Every z-score is measured against guessing. This is Yarrow's track record

2026.08.11 02:54

59 policy questions. Every prediction frozen in git before the outcome was knowable. 🧐 🇮🇩 Indonesia — Brier 0.086 · z = +6.4 🇲🇾 Malaysia — Brier 0.071 · z = +8.8 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — Brier 0.111 · z = +3.1 🇻🇳 Vietnam — Brier 0.137 · z = +4.7 🇸🇬 Singapore — Brier 0.139 · z = +3.1 Lower is better. 0.25 = coin flip. Every z-score is measured against guessing. This is Yarrow's track record — frozen, scored, public.

Yarrow@Yarrow_ai

2026.08.10 03:13

"What's a Brier score?" It measures how close your probability was to what actually happened. Lower = better. ❌0.25 → coin flip (you know nothing) ▪️~0.10 → superforecaster range ✅0.086 → Yarrow on 25 Indonesian policy questions When Yarrow says 70%, events like that happen about 70% of the time. 😄 The goal is calibration, not confidence. Most AI is trained to sound confident. Ours is trained to be right. ✅☘️