We published predictions on 11 companies over the past week. Here's every call, right and wrong. Part 1: EPS predictions with Polymarket contracts We made directional calls (beat/miss) on 7 companies where Polymarket had active contracts. 6 out of 7 correct. Cumulative Brier score: Yarrow 0.09, Polymarket 0.19. Two misses to be transparent about: AAPL: We called it a coin flip (50%). It beat. Our logic was sound — Apple's guidance is precise, and the $2.02 threshold was above consensus. What we missed: a $0.05 one-time tariff refund. Without it, EPS would have been $2.05 — barely clearing. We stand by the reasoning, but the market was closer. QCOM: We gave 68% beat. It missed by $0.03. Close call. Our guidance risk flag (65% chance of weak guidance) did validate — Q1 midpoint $2.25 came in below the $2.29 Street expected, stock dropped 5-7% after hours.