Over the past month, we heard that the data-center trade was about to implode because AI is a fraud. We heard that $NVDA ’s earnings would expose circular financing and reveal that the entire AI boom was one giant fraud. We saw hedge funds deleverage at a record pace and cut exposure to its lowest level. And we kept hearing about the inevitable 10% drawdown that has occurred before every midterm election.
Yet amid all the noise, only one got it right. Not me, the $VIX .
It fell almost every single day. When something is truly wrong, the $VIX usually rises or at least stops falling, signaling that smart money is hedging. That never happened.
It’s no wonder your intuition can’t guide you. It’s clouded by the constant noise from X, the news, and everything you read everywhere. Most of it is garbage, and all of it is already priced in.
The $VIX shows you what matters: whether people are actually hedging right now. You can see the change in real time.
Always follow the $VIX first.
The $VIX and the broader volatility market don’t seem particularly worried about $NVDA earnings tomorrow. And usually, when the vol market isn’t worried, you probably shouldn’t be either.