๊ฐ€์ž… ํ›„ ์ดˆ๋Œ€ ๋งํฌ๋ฅผ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋™์˜์ƒ ์žฌ์ƒ ๋ฐ ์ดˆ๋Œ€ ๋ณด์ƒ์„ ๋ฐ›์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

Z
@ZeeContrarian1
Former Wall Street professional. Special situations, awareness, logic, Buddhism.
๊ฐ€์ž… September 2013
0 ํŒ”๋กœ์ž‰ ์ค‘    47K ํŒฌ
๐—œ๐—ณ ๐—›๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ด-๐—Ÿ๐—น๐—ผ๐˜†๐—ฑโ€™๐˜€ ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜ ๐—ผ๐—ณ $ZIM ๐—ด๐—ผ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ต, ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜ $๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ, ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ.๐Ÿฐ% ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ. We do not expect the transaction to close before next year. Therefore, current shareholders should receive approximately $5 per share in dividends before the deal closes. A $35 buyout price plus $5 in dividends gives shareholders a total value of $40 per share. With $ZIM currently trading at $28.50, that represents approximately 40.4% upside. Our bull-case scenario is $42 per share. In Q3 2023, $ZIM recorded a $2.1 billion impairment charge due to the declining value of its ships and containers. At the time, HARPEX was around 800. Today, it is approximately 2,450. After accounting for the shipsโ€™ use and depreciation since then, we calculate that approximately $4 per share of underlying impairment value remains. The buyer would receive this additional value, so we expect the new management negotiating the final transaction to recover at least $2 per share for shareholders. $35 buyout + $5 dividends + $2 recovered impairment value = $42 per share. From $28.50, our bull case represents approximately 47.4% upside.
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