Just my my math speculation:
Pre Xai deal
OAI at ~2.5GW / Anthro at ~2GW
- Renting NVDA ~$13B/Yr/GW (hyperscalers / CRWV financials)
- Assume mix of Trainium/TPU is 50% discount per GW
- Then Anthro spending ~$13B for ~2GW then = ~$1B / mo of spend
So adding this deal for COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II = $1.25B / mo of spend
That means after this deal, $NVDA penetration of Anthropic compute stack = >50% instantly...
That's something Jensen mentioned on the earnings call: "And so we're growing - and our coverage of Anthropic has been largely 0 until just recently. And so we're gaining share tremendously in inference"
Based on studying the industry I'm pretty sure that math is right...
Even assuming Trainium / TPU is 25% discount then this deal puts Nvidia compute penetration at Anthropic at 40%!
anyone else have different analysis?