I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections.
Given recent industry earnings:
> $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck).
> $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines)
> US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink)
> AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers.
The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too.
Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.