Alexander Markl(@alex_markl):With oil & rates ripping, markets are exerting maximum pressure on Trump, leading to Iran having max leverage. Binary reaction function from here: • Quasi withdrawal with a weak deal (e.g. US Navy 'helps' secure strait & us, iran share profits lol) • Military escalation -> multi-month battle for strait control, destruction of energy infra -> global recession. Feels like we'll get a resolution this week. don't see trump having the balls to just sit through $120 oil and US 10yr at 4.8-5% this week without one of the two. 80/20 odds for a weak deal imo.

2026.05.17 08:13

With oil & rates ripping, markets are exerting maximum pressure on Trump, leading to Iran having max leverage. Binary reaction function from here: • Quasi withdrawal with a weak deal (e.g. US Navy 'helps' secure strait & us, iran share profits lol) • Military escalation -> multi-month battle for strait control, destruction of energy infra -> global recession. Feels like we'll get a resolution this week. don't see trump having the balls to just sit through $120 oil and US 10yr at 4.8-5% this week without one of the two. 80/20 odds for a weak deal imo.