SCOOP: Our sources in DC have just filled us in about what’s actually driving the recent moves from the SEC & CFTC.
From what we’ve heard, it’s basically a fugazi legislative progress based on administrative ‘shortcuts’ to appease the industry for now and also push it forward.
It’s a set short-term rules for the next 2 years, with no real sticking power (unless codified into an act like CLARITY).
Actual bills like CLARITY take years to pass, but fast-tracked exemption orders and quick rule filings take weeks and as we’ve seen, are coming out rapidly from both agencies.
Tokenization first with perps and KYC rules are next, is what we’re hearing.
The strategy is a bit of a concern in DC, though.
When the government deregulated mortgage swaps, it took six years to trigger AIG and 2008. With leverage turned up, zero controls, and retail everywhere, this timeline moves way faster.
This is onchain finance.
The worry here is about degenerate perp traders blowing up their clients accounts, people's pensions and college savings.
Whether that’s advisors, young GPs, or the average fund manager, there’s a serious concern about 10-100x leverage in perps.
Insiders fully expect these folks who blow up to get wrecked in court before we finally get a serious, lasting conversation with real rules coming later on.
TLDR;
Floodgates are open and there will be chaos. Welcome back to the Wild, Wild West.
Do not blow up.
Be more bullish.