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AskLivermore
@asklivermore
Singapore's #1# trader now on X. Timing cycles and stock rotation theory. Subscribe to my trades:
가입 February 2026
195 팔로잉 중    148.6K 팬
A lot of people on X are new to the markets. So I'll make this as simple and harsh as possible. The economy is not going up. It is not going down. It is doing both at the same time. This is called a "K-shaped economy" and almost nobody talking about affordability on your timeline understands what it actually means. If you own assets, stocks and real estate, you are on the upper arm of the K. Your wealth has compounded aggressively since 2020. The S&P is at all-time highs. Home prices are up 50% since the pandemic. Your 401k is the best it has ever been. If you do NOT own assets, you are on the lower arm. Rent is higher. Groceries cost more. A home that cost 2.2x the median income in 1960 now costs 5 to 7x. You are working harder and falling further behind, and it is not your imagination. The top 10% of Americans own 93% of all stocks. The bottom 50% own 1%. The top 10% hold 68% of total wealth. The bottom 50% hold 2.5%. This is not an opinion. This is Federal Reserve data. When the S&P goes up 25% in a year, the people who own stocks get 25% wealthier. The people who don't own stocks get nothing. That is the K. Same economy. Two completely different outcomes based on one thing: whether you owned assets before the run started. This is why your timeline is split in half. Half the people saying the economy has never been better. The other half saying they can't afford to live. Both are telling the truth. They are just on different arms of the K. How long does this last? The honest answer is that it has been going on for decades. The Richmond Fed traced this pattern back 30 years. It happened after 2001. It happened after 2008. It happened after COVID. Each time the gap widened and never fully closed before the next shock hit. The last time wealth concentration looked like this was the Gilded Age, 1870 to 1900. That lasted 30 years before structural reform changed anything. What does this mean for you? The K-shaped economy is not a reason to panic. It is a reason to understand where you sit and what you can control. The people on the upper arm did not get lucky. They owned assets. That is the entire difference. Change your life and start small. No matter how small your account balance is. I only started with $10K, twenty years ago. This is your time to retire your whole family. They are counting on you.
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