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GDP
@bookwormengr
AI model & hardware co-design, Inference economics Safe super intelligence for all All views strictly personal. No investment advice, dummies!
가입 July 2010
13.3K 팔로잉 중    19.8K 팬
Interesting thought process to arrive at same conclusion as mine on AI overbuild. For now you can blame it on inefficiency. By end of 2027 you can not. Quote: “DeepSeek, for example, on a GB300, monetizes at 34 bucks an hour. If there was infinite demand at 34 bucks an hour, then GB300s would sell for that amount. But in practice, they sell for 12 to 15. Sometimes even less."
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Why do GB300 GPUs rent for just $12-15/hour when serving DeepSeek can generate $34/hour? Morph's @skeptrune argues the AI infrastructure boom has an overlooked problem: there aren't enough customers to buy all the inference capacity being built. "All of OpenRouter is probably 16 racks of GB300 at most, which is not a lot of compute. There’s tens of thousands of racks available in the world." "If you were to build a 20 megawatt data center and you wanted to just sell the tokens for that, there's less than 1,000 companies in the world that would actually have the appetite to buy tokens from you. You can't sell a gigawatt of compute as inference. There’s not enough demand." "DeepSeek, for example, on a GB300, monetizes at 34 bucks an hour. If there was infinite demand at 34 bucks an hour, then GB300s would sell for that amount. But in practice, they sell for 12 to 15. Sometimes even less." "You can't just turn on a GPU and then find a customer on the other side that’ll let you monetize at 34 bucks an hour. We need more people to build software and nice applications that use these tokens." @morphllm
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