We get two inflation numbers in the next 48 hours - PPI tomorrow and CPI on Friday. Even though Fed Funds futures are highly uncertain about the FOMC's September decision (62% hike), the stock market remains sanguine. The 2-day ES risk reversal is -3.1 this morning. That's up from the recent extremely low levels but still in the 7th-15th percentile depending on how far back our historical window goes. Equity option traders are charging low premiums for tail insurance going into the inflation reports. A big part of the reason is that, despite a lot of recent volatility in expectations about the September FOMC decision, long-term policy rate expectations are remarkably well anchored. The SOFR curve for 2027-29 has barely moved over the past month and the Fed Fund futures have been pricing in 1-2 rate hikes for the past month as well with little weight in the tails. The timing of the hikes has been volatile, but the end point has been very stable.