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Chamath Palihapitiya
@chamath
Social Capital 8090 God is in the details.
가입 April 2007
1.1K 팔로잉 중    2.3M
The resolution of this trillion dollar bet will happen before EOY 2026. Stakes are enormous on the outcome. Path1: Markets price the Ant IPO and public valuation answers this question. Path2: Harness + Open Model math becomes more precise and well known. It shows material token efficiency. Model forward valuations changes independent of current revenue run rate. Path3: Open Models pressure proactive price cuts and performance improvements on token efficiency from the frontier labs. This resets the Pareto frontier. If I had to guess, valuations were most skewed and top ticked in Feb. Valuations can still rise from here but it will be less skewed and will be measured more precisely on an EV/MW basis.
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Chamath says OpenAI and Anthropic could be $5 to $10 trillion companies each if they remain a duopoly "I suspect revenues are going to crank at OpenAI and Anthropic and the open labs for a while. But again, that's not the important thing." "If you're thinking about valuation, the markets will look five to 10 years out to answer that question, they're not going to give you a premium valuation on something that they feel could be fragile in the first two to three years." "Somebody has to answer that question precisely. Because if the answer is that it is a duopoly, then there is no risk to the revenue five to 10 years from now, these things are $5 to $10 trillion companies each." "But if there are harnesses that cut the token consumption, because you stop wasting tokens to get to the same output, then it's a little bit more of a question mark. And I think that'll need to get sorted out."
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