Power is THE binding constraint.
Data centers are being shut down, GPUs are sold out, models are being commoditized and spot rates are rising all leads to power being critical. Not fanciful plans for power, future forecasts of BTM or distributed batteries blah blah blah but energized power today.
This means the following hierarchy is developing from greatest to least value:
1. Hyperscaler
2. Neocloud
3. Model maker
Ideally, you are 1+3 (Google, SpaceX, Meta) where you own massive power today and have a leading set of models to keep API pricing from 3rd parties honest enough to benefit them vs the model maker. But even if you are just (1), you can still extract great economics from (3) because owning the power is the leverage.
This means (2) needs to scale up fast. If Neoclouds do not scale up fast and move up the value stack towards hyperscalers (solely measured by energized compute online today) they are going to leave a lot of revenue on the table which will complicate their long term financing plans.
Also, starting now, a neocloud’s real competitors will be well capitalized frontier model companies who will do sweetheart deals with (1) and/or will vertically integrate and try to become (1). You can see this in the fact pattern (Ant+AWS, OAI+Stargate).
Get your hands on power.
It’s the spice.