TODAY: One LAST CPI to cue a year-end RALLY or a SELL OFF. The last CPI report before the Fed’s December meeting will be out in a few hours. There will be no official YoY reading, as the 2025 shutdown left a gap in last October’s data. So all eyes are on the MONTHLY numbers. Economists expect October CORE CPI to rise by 0.2% MoM, while headline CPI is projected to add 0.3%. What today’s CORE CPI number could mean: 🟢 0.1% → COOL. Hike odds drop, stocks and Bitcoin could rise 🟠 0.2% → AS EXPECTED. December hike stays on 🔴 0.3%+ → HOT. Bigger hike risk, stocks and Bitcoin could fall A 0.1% difference could decide between a 25 bps and a 50 bps hike. Markets now see an 99% chance of a December rate hike, up from 67% last week. The macro backdrop: 1. September CPI climbed to 3.7% YoY from 3.4%. Today’s monthly print shows whether that momentum carried into October. 2. Over 70% of core services categories rose at least 3% YoY. Another hot services print would signal that inflation is still widespread. 3. Payrolls rose 165K and unemployment fell to 4.1%. With jobs holding up, a hotter-than-expected core CPI would strengthen the case for a bigger December hike. Volatility is coming.