gold and silver If Indians flee the rupee into gold and silver, the state taxes the metal at the border. It’s a different type of financial repression to support the currency than my essay a few days ago India did that in May: duty 6% to 15%, then licences. They made the alternative to the currency expensive so dollars would stop leaving. Scale: India bought 230 million ounces last year. The official world deficit is roughly 46 million. China shipped roughly 164 million. Thats the pivot. It’s a simple stock and flow model so don’t over complicate it It’s what a state does when the currency is under stress. It’s important to realise states will act when pushed against the wall and that happens again and again in this new era . It’s the new normal COMEX is the other lever. Margins went 9% to 11% as silver printed $121 on 29 January, then 11% to 15% two days later. That’s the exchange turning the tap down because they are concerned about reserves The print was dead inside 30 hours. 18% came in February. Shanghai was already paying a super fat premium comparatively about 22% on 30 January so the East was tight while Chicago was liquidating paper. Don’t assume that can’t go higher China’s licensing is the unused switch so far. It’s like loading a gun and pointing it at your head . A licensing regime is an economic loaded gun If they actually stopped shipments, they would hit the Western pipe by whatever they shut off. They haven’t yet . August was 406 tonnes: up on July, a shade below last August. It’s only threatened not executed the threat . That’s why you have to watch trump / Xi so closely That’s why Trump thinks he’s such an awesome guy . That 230m oz going to India and the exports coming from China are so do important to watch A real stop by China , not the licence on paper they’ve threatened , would light the physical market up like fireworks China shipped 164 million ounces last year. The official world gap is 46 million. The visible tank you can actually deliver from is about 400 million London’s free float maybe 200–300 million, COMEX registered about 96 million. October 2025 already squeezed London to 35% lease rates while China was still selling 660 tonnes that month into the panic. So the point is you don’t get to decide later or at the time of the shutdown it’s a commitment now to ride it out that has to be made now . Because industrial demand is growing like crazy Buy gold and silver realising it’s not a fun ride , if you measure the value daily it’ll drive you crazy . I like physical because it’s such a pain in the ass to trade I can’t be tipped out , because it takes a bit of effort to sell . I said to someone the other day I buy physical because I can’t be bothered trading it and if I held it in paper I wouldn’t leave it alone . You don’t buy it for its daily price measured in fiat. Dollar price is how you settle the trade. It is a really really poor reason you bought it.