Major themes 1. SPX earnings expectations are in an epic bubble which won't deliver as there is not enough "GDP pie" and valuations are highish 2. In order to stand a chance of delivering these epic bubble like earnings massive issuance will be required to pay for capex while borrowing by the government remains high. That is a headwind on all assets and limits wealth effect consumption as well 3. Long term interest rates have V topped and fallen rapidly 6 times post COVID. This time despite suppression attempts by the administration a V top in yields is unlikely and higher for longer long term yields will over time tighten financial conditions and slow the economy Positioning. In a bubble regime with larger tails in both directions and apparent low expected volatility supported by low realized volatility it's tempting to leverage up above your risk target in your long term long only portfolio. Do not do that. Maintain your risk target. That's my beta positioning today. At risk target in a long stocks, bonds, tips, commodities, and gold balance and diversified across dm As for market timing alpha I am currently running a small bet that the market climbs through 9/30 while opportunistically adding November equity puts. My delta is slightly long but will be max short by 9/30. Max short risks 4% of AUM on put premiums for a 20-25% payoff if market corrects 5-10%. I am not positioned for a crash and you shouldn't be either STIR i am building a long in SFRH7 for two reasons. 1. A growth slowdown in Q4/Q1 for my big macro themes which may not pay as soon but is well priced if it doesnt and 2. A hedge for an equity short in case Warsh does what every central bank does which is pivot dovish on any weakness Bonds My central case is a drift higher in bond yields and i have a credit 1x2 in ZB which will make money in all scenarios besides a true bond puke. In such a puke my most 9/30 max short equity will work Oil would short a rally but far away. Own a bunch in commodity beta but no alpha Gold meh. No view here. Own 10% in beta but no alpha bet I favor ROW equity's and bonds. I favor ROW currency markets Always own beta but not above risk targets in this environment