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SparklingP
@dpuk04
$PONS
가입 November 2009
1.2K 팔로잉 중    261
Ozzy says in the stream below that he wants $PONS to become a 1bn valuation protocol. How can we get there? - Current market cap is $33m - Last 7 days fees are are $1.1m, of which 80% so c.900K flows to buy backs. - So currently the coin trades a 0.6x annualised buy backs Path to 1bn 1) v2 is dropping imminently and is expected to mechanically 2x or more fees. So that's $1.8m buy backs per week. 2) The current 0.6x multiple is low because the protocol is so new. Traders are assuming that current fee levels will not prove durable. This is the key point. Every week that goes by with fees at or above this level, the multiple should gradually drift up as the platform proves fees can be sustained at these levels. 3) Pump's equivalent multiple has traded between 3 and 6 in recent times. In a bear market. But clearly Pump at the moment is a more proven protocol and so Pons should trade at a discount. 4) But if $PONS fees are durable - and I think the market is under pricing that outcome given the speed at which the team are innovating, then we could easily get to 15x the current market cap (2x the fees from v2 and a 7.5x multiple rerating over time from 0.6x to 4.5x). Which would put $PONS at a c.500m market cap. But note this is all in a bear market on a nascent chain. Seems completely possible that volumes and fees could double or more from current levels if the market picks up. A 2x in launchpad volumes from bear to bull seems conservative if anything. So to recap, the path to 1bn is: 1) 2x fees from v2 dropping this week. This should be mechanical. 2) Multiple rerate from 0.6x to 4.5x over the next 6 months as $PONS proves it has staying power 3) 2x in fees when the bull market eventually comes back That results in a 1bn $PONS valuation. Clearly needs the stars to align and the team to continue knocking it out of the park, but none of those assumptions seem aggressive on the face of it. The key point is really - can the $PONS fees prove durable enough that the multiple rerates towards Pump's? Which is really a bet of the PONS team and on Robinhood chain. Neither of which seem like teams you'd want to fade. So imo, $PONS to 1bn is completely possible if the team keeps executing and fees prove sticky.
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