"Lab compute 3x-es year over year. For a lab to 10x revenue while continuing to only 3x compute, some combination of the following 3 things has to happen:
1. Lab margins have to increase,
2. The price of compute has to increase,
3. Labs have to spend a greater fraction of their compute on inference.
My understanding is that basically all 3 of these things have been happening..."
"Consider the price at which Google and Anthropic are renting compute from SpaceX.
Google is reportedly paying $900 million a month for 110K GPUs [at] ... roughly 2x the spot price per hour for those GPUs. And the current spot price is itself 40% higher than it was in February."
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New blog post on what would be true about the world if trendline continues and leading lab hits $1T in revenue by the end of next year.
In other words, why compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years
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