가입 후 초대 링크를 공유하면 동영상 재생 및 초대 보상을 받을 수 있습니다.

Gary Black
@garyblack00
Managing Partner, The Future Fund LLC, SEC registered investment adviser. CEO/CIO/PM. Disclosure:
가입 August 2019
99 팔로잉 중    581.9K 팬
Updated: US stocks declined as Brent crude crossed $100/bbl on escalating US-Iran attacks with no peace talks in sight, lifting gold, silver and bitcoin. 10-year treasury yields ticked higher in front of next week’s Fed meeting. $AAPL shares slipped ahead of its foldable-phone event today; $TSLA fell after recovering yesterday following last week’s uncertain Cybercab event. A strong August jobs report Friday has raised odds of a September Fed rate hike to 62%, although I remain skeptical of a Fed hike less than two months before midterms. S&P 2026 earnings ests continue to rise on AI and energy, but at a 21.1x forward P/E the S&P 500 now yields less (4.7%) than 10yr Treasuries (normal equity premium 50-100bp). We remain cautious on $TSLA given declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates, the continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a stretched valuation (220x forward P/E vs +35% long-term EPS growth, 6.3x PEG).
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US stocks searched for direction as Brent crude briefly crossed $100/bbl on escalating US-Iran attacks with no peace talks in sight, lifting gold, silver and bitcoin. 10-year treasury yields ticked higher in front of next week’s Fed meeting. Chip names gained; $AAPL edged up ahead of its foldable-phone launch today and $TSLA slipped after recovering yesterday following last week’s uncertain Cybercab event. A strong August jobs report Friday has raised odds of a September Fed rate hike to 62%, although the I remain skeptical of a move two months before midterms. S&P 2026 earnings ests continue to rise on AI and energy, but at a 21.1x forward P/E the S&P 500 now yields less (4.7%) than 10yr Treasuries (normal equity premium 50-100bp). We remain cautious on $TSLA given declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates, the continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a stretched valuation (220x forward P/E vs +35% long-term EPS growth, 6.3x PEG).
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