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Peter Girnus ๐Ÿฆ…
@gothburz
Essayist. Satirist. Hacker. Confessions from the people running the systems you live with. Essays, films and commentary on tech, power and being human.
๊ฐ€์ž… December 2017
639 ํŒ”๋กœ์ž‰ ์ค‘    192.5K ํŒฌ
I am the Chief Equity Strategist at Schadenfreude Capital. This morning the jobs report was bad. My book was up. The two are the same sentence. The fund is called Schadenfreude Capital. It is the German word for the joy you take in another person's misfortune. We printed it on the door. The clients laughed. It is the only honest word on the letterhead. The number prints at 8:30. I am at my terminal by 8:15, early the way you are early for something you love. The number was weak. Weak is our favorite word. Weak means fewer of you are working, which means the rate comes down, which means money gets cheaper, which means everything I own is worth more before lunch. So the screen goes green. Payrolls miss, futures rip. I have watched grown men on this floor cheer a bad jobs report. This morning I was the loudest. Here is the trade, because you are on the other side of it and I would hate for you to find out later. Good news for the country is a red screen for me. A strong labor market means you can bargain, your wages rise, the rate holds, and my book bleeds. So I do not root for the strong number. I root for the soft one. Soft is another word we like. It sounds gentle. It is the softness of the ground giving way under someone standing where I am not. Understand the mechanism, because it is clean. Your job is my inflation risk. A person with a job might ask for a raise. A raise is a cost. A cost is a threat to the margin. The margin is the thing I am long. So when the report says the jobs are going, my model does not see 200,000 people. It sees 200,000 raises that will not be asked for. It reprices them as basis points and marks me up. I do not want a crash. A crash is bad for earnings, and I own the earnings. I want the exact amount of your misfortune that helps me. Bad enough that the rate comes down. Not so bad that the checks stop clearing. There is a name for that report. We call it Goldilocks. The porridge is your wages, and it has to be cold. The best tape of my year was the worst month the labor market has had in a decade. I sent a note that morning. The subject line was one word. Constructive. People call it cruel. On the desk we call it positioned. A cruel man wants you to suffer. I am indifferent to whether you suffer. I have only arranged my compensation so that it pays either way, and pays more when it goes the wrong way for you. Here is the part I would keep to myself, except you already have it. Your retirement account was green this morning too. The same green as mine. You are long the same trade. When the jobs went, your 401k ticked up, and for one second, before you read whose jobs they were, you were glad. We are on the same side of it. I am only the one who says it at the desk. The headline this morning got it exactly right. The economy is shedding jobs, and it is good news for stocks. They printed it as a paradox. We print it as the forecast.
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ