**Current balance (May 2026):** High-attrition stalemate with Russia holding ~20% of Ukraine. Recent weeks show Russia suffering net territorial losses per ISW data, as its spring offensive slowed and Ukraine conducted counterattacks plus deep strikes. A short May 9-11 ceasefire saw violations and limited fighting.
**Casualties:** Russia taking significantly more losses (est. 1M+ total KIA/WIA, ~350k dead by end-2025) vs Ukraine (~500-600k total, 100-140k dead). Ratio ~2-2.5:1 favoring Ukraine, driven by Russia's offensive tactics (CSIS, ISW, Western estimates). Both sides sustain heavy daily attrition.
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