steve hsu(@hsu_steve):WSJ confirms the OSINT estimate from last week: "U.S. forces fired 60 to 70 Patriot interceptors to counter the attack, which consisted of about 20 ballistic missiles, some of the officials said. The U.S. also fired more than a dozen Thaad interceptors, one of the officials said. ... The defenses didn’t stop everything. While no troops were killed in the attack last week, Iran managed to hit jet fighters and other aircraft at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, one of the officials said." The Thaad launches are new to me - and even more alarming. These numbers support the asymmetric reality of missile war in the 21st century: defense is VERY HARD. This is why the US is losing to Iran. Longer discussion here: https://t.co/ezUgpwPpZ9

2026.09.16 11:34

WSJ confirms the OSINT estimate from last week: "U.S. forces fired 60 to 70 Patriot interceptors to counter the attack, which consisted of about 20 ballistic missiles, some of the officials said. The U.S. also fired more than a dozen Thaad interceptors, one of the officials said. ... The defenses didn’t stop everything. While no troops were killed in the attack last week, Iran managed to hit jet fighters and other aircraft at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, one of the officials said." The Thaad launches are new to me - and even more alarming. These numbers support the asymmetric reality of missile war in the 21st century: defense is VERY HARD. This is why the US is losing to Iran. Longer discussion here:

steve hsu@hsu_steve

2026.09.09 22:35

3+ PAC-3's to intercept each MRBM? 🤔 Grok What is confirmed: Overnight 8–9 Sept, Iran fired ballistic missiles at the U.S.-used Muwaffaq Salti / Al-Azraq base in Jordan. Jordan says 20 incoming, 18 intercepted, 2 fell in empty areas, no casualties. A U.S. official said no significant impact on U.S. bases and all U.S. personnel accounted for. What is estimated, not official: Videos show a very large Patriot salvo. OSINT puts launches at ~60–100+. Type is assessed as mostly U.S. PAC-3 MSE (Jordan’s own Patriots are older PAC-2 and cannot fire PAC-3). Pentagon/CENTCOM have not released count or variant. $4M+/round and “half-billion salvo” are cost extrapolations from those estimates, not a disclosed bill. What is contested: IRGC claims hangars/shelters and fighter facilities were hit, some with cluster munitions. Some videos show explosions near the base. No independent satellite confirmation for this night yet. Do not overclaim: Cannot prove every trail is PAC-3 from phone video. Cannot treat 100 launches or a 90% intercept rate as fact. Shoot-look-shoot / multi-round doctrine means high interceptor use is expected even when most threats are killed.

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