.@dylan522p predicts OpenAI and Anthropic are on track to control most of the world's computing power by 2028: "This centralization doesn't look like it's slowing down or stopping. In fact, it looks like it's only accelerating. At the beginning of this year, OpenAI and Anthropic were taking about 30% of the incremental compute added. Next year they're taking as much as 40% to 50%" "World compute in gigawatts doubles every year, but the compute at the frontier labs triples every single year. By the end of next year, half of the world's incremental new compute is already going to just Anthropic and OpenAI" "And that half is at a higher performance than everything else, because the new chips are three to five times more efficient. So by the end of 2028, if this trend continues, and I see nothing stopping it, you've got them controlling most of the usable flops in the world on their own"