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Jeremiah
@jeremiahrogers
Independent Analyst | ex-Meta, Flexport | Building @zecstats_, | Bitcoin 2013+
가입 October 2010
1.1K 팔로잉 중    3.4K 팬
The data to watch for $PRL. If the @prlnet work @WeinsteinOmri has teased gets matmuls fast and inference overhead down $PRL net energy expenditure should go up dramatically. This is because if inference is faster on PRL kernels than existing stacks it is a no brainer for inference providers to move over. To not do so would leave both inference revenue and mining revenue on the table. Inference providers moving to PRL stack would increase blockchain difficulty and may put a rapidly increasing floor under price (assuming useless mining cost or energy cost somewhat function as floors). To be explicit, we still don't have a full picture on the demand side. Just supply. It likely won't play out exactly as said above but still worth watching.
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Let's say $PRL captures 5% of AI data-center usage, big IF, and it will take time. I model that puts PRL at 20% of Bitcoin energy usage and cost to mine during inference at ~= $24.50/PRL vs ~= $1.15/PRL today. If $PRL gets to 25% of AI data center adoption then it flips Bitcoin in total energy securing the network, cost to mine during inference appears to be ~= $102/PRL at that point. For me the whole PRL story is an optional bet on this energy story and if it plays out. Do the economics claw energy, price, and demand up together? FWIW There are A LOT of assumptions in these models. Please read carefully and do your own math.
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