The oil market is quietly inching up to levels we saw in the spring. But, unlike then, global oil stocks are bullish. Here's my 2 cents on the market this year, as told through time spreads. The difference between the price for a commodity today versus in a few months is a better signal of near-term fundamentals than outright prices. The oil market has gone through 5 stages in 2026, represented in this graph of the premium of month 1 vs month 3. Stage 1: Pre-war - Oversupplied market. Inventories are high and rising. No premium for physical barrels. Stage 2: Immediately after attack on Iran - Market put some risk premium for the uncertainty but expected a quick resolution. Stage 3: War drags on, increasing attacks on energy infrastructure - Market wildly swings between panic over Strait remaining closed and widening conflict vs predictions of near term peace deal. Stage 4: Inventory withdrawals and workarounds to export crude weigh on market - The large premium for near term crude incentivizes commercial inventory withdrawals from stocks that entered the war at elevated levels. Combined with releases from global strategic reserves, physical markets are surprisingly weak. Premium for near term barrels largely disappears. Stage 5: Reality sets in - After 4.5 months of major supply disruption, inventories surpluses are eliminated and continuing to draw. No visibility to opening Strait. Market slowly starts to build premium for physical barrels. Significant price premiums exist for diesel and gasoline. Recent skirmishes increase concern about how long market can remain subdued.