HOT TAKE: unclear IF frontier labs CAN generate 30-40% FCF / EBIT margins like traditional SaaS given AI lab unique margin structure with high R&D / Training costs.
Let's be clear, EBTIT (
@SemiAnalysis_ forecast 36% in Q2'26) is a good way to measure $ labs can re-invest into training but is NOT a profitability metric as training is basically capitalizing R&D -- however, you need training to build models that you then charge a margin on. So training = opex.
Even Semi Analysis in July '26 pointed out the margin profile:
- Anthropic API = 80% margin
- 3rd Party / Resellers = 20% take rate
-> Net Gross Margin = 60% for Anthropic
- Training & R&D = 48% of Revenue
- Other OpEx = 20% of revenue.
Gets you to -8% operating margin at steady state.
Ok, let's assume Net Gross Margins is 75% (less ARR comes through channel like AWS / GCP and more direct)
Your OPEX is still heavy training / R&D + opex at 68%.
So we get Anthropic at a 7-10% margin business steady state?
Am I missing something? ๐คท
Do labs just use their own models to train their frontier models and keep proprietary and reduce staff so OPEX shrinks a ton?