People are going to realize it takes a frontier human to extract productivity out of a frontier model, and there is simply not enough frontier human to compensate for the capex relying on revenue from training frontier models (yes if you remove training compute demand the whole thing is unprofitable already, and that’s before token price depreciation). Put it simply, demand for intelligence isn’t infinite and is in the shape of a bell curve, and cheaper models are slowly eating their way into the bell curve, leaving frontier training cost rely on a smaller and smaller tail of intelligence demand. In the end you are left with a billion dollar training run which only use is to solve Navier Stokes, because all the other tasks that are useful for the current economy can be run on cheaper models