cephalopodshop(@macrocephalopod):Prediction market prices are set, at the margin, by giant proprietary trading firms in NYC and Chicago who are filtering data from pollsters and professional forecasters (Nate Silver etc) and incorporating it in real time — trying to frame it as “the little guy who knows his home town better than any pollster” is so fucking disingenuous.

2026.11.05 07:59

Prediction market prices are set, at the margin, by giant proprietary trading firms in NYC and Chicago who are filtering data from pollsters and professional forecasters (Nate Silver etc) and incorporating it in real time — trying to frame it as “the little guy who knows his home town better than any pollster” is so fucking disingenuous.

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