Milk Road Crypto(@milkroaddaily):BREAKING: CFTC launches examination of Kalshi perp volumes after WSJ accuses Kalshi of fake perp volumes. As a CFTC-regulated market, if the investigations reveal wrongdoing, this could be a major blow to the prediction market giant's "regulated=real liquidity" pitch. To be clear, this isn't enforcement action. CFTC is in the "look at the data first" phase for now. Watch what the CFTC does next. An official probe could impact Kalshi's adoption and growth, especially with Hyperliquid looming on its doorstep, with a potential US entry backed by Payward, Kraken's parent entity. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 allows any deployer to launch prediction markets by staking a meaningful amount of HYPE tokens and running them on an open and permissionless blockchain.

2026.09.23 13:58

BREAKING: CFTC launches examination of Kalshi perp volumes after WSJ accuses Kalshi of fake perp volumes. As a CFTC-regulated market, if the investigations reveal wrongdoing, this could be a major blow to the prediction market giant's "regulated=real liquidity" pitch. To be clear, this isn't enforcement action. CFTC is in the "look at the data first" phase for now. Watch what the CFTC does next. An official probe could impact Kalshi's adoption and growth, especially with Hyperliquid looming on its doorstep, with a potential US entry backed by Payward, Kraken's parent entity. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 allows any deployer to launch prediction markets by staking a meaningful amount of HYPE tokens and running them on an open and permissionless blockchain.

Milk Road Crypto@milkroaddaily

2026.09.21 14:59

Is Kalshi fudging its perp volumes? A viral thread circulating on X claims that they do. The catch is an abnormally concentrated, repeatable lot-size pattern on the ETH perp that's hard to explain with organic flows. The screenshots show $5,500 clips accounting for ~47-58% of ETH perp notional volume across four separate windows in mid-September. > 16-Sep: ~10K prints representing ~47.2% of notional > 18-Sep: ~15K prints representing ~58% of notional > 19-20 Sep: ~10K prints representing ~25% of notional The ETH perp volumes are also 174x its 24-hour volume. A high volume with low OI signals churn or circular flow. This could be either legitimate MM activity or coordinated wash-style trading that inflates volumes number without adding positions. Kalshi hasn't officially responded to the allegations, but Kalshi's Crypto Lead, IcoBeast, has pushed back, arguing the data mixes products or that incentive programs are disclosed and wash trades are excluded from rebates. H/T: @beniduboss

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