"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave."
@themarketsniper on why the financial system isn't broken, it's working exactly as built:
A debt-based system, in his framing, has one permitted direction: expansion. Contraction isn't a policy option, it's a system failure. So every crisis gets answered the same way, more debt, more liquidity, more of the thing that caused it.
His model for how that ends is the Hemingway curve: gradually, then suddenly. And he points to a dress rehearsal most investors have already forgotten, Britain, 2022, when a slow-building pension problem turned into a bond market crash within days, and the Bank of England had to step back in almost overnight.
Translation: the debate isn't whether the system holds this quarter. It's that a structure which can only expand has no gentle way down, so the risk doesn't build in a straight line, it builds silently and releases at once. The people who did well in the gilt crisis weren't the ones who predicted the day. They were the ones holding what forced sellers needed.