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nic carter
@nic_carter
가입 November 2011
3.6K 팔로잉 중    766K 팬
imagine the chief scientist for an agricultural chemical company announced one day: "in the next decade we will release a new fertilizer. it will increase crop yields in many regions by 50% and create new abundance, potentially saving many millions from starvation. however, we calculate that it has a 10% chance of creating a massive wave of cancers in populations exposed to it. despite this, we are proceeding with our plan, and raising capital in order to finalize the synthesis of this fertilizer. we are confident that the risk is worth it, because we have a side effect team dedicated to getting this risk as low as possible. we are not going to stop our progress, because if we stop, someone else will develop the fertilizer, and they may pay even less attention to the side effects. it would be better if we were the main seller of the fertilizer. also, we are going to build 10,000 massive silos housing this chemical, and put them inside all of your cities. these silos will create traffic, construction noise, and be unsightly and annoying. they will also be ever-present reminders of the fact that we are actively developing a chemical which we believe has a good chance of killing most of you." the chemical company does not acknowledge the existence of rip-off versions of the product that are potentially even more carcinogenic, or competing Chinese chemical manufacturers working towards the same goal with totally unknown safety characteristics. the chemical company has no stated plan for the rip-offs or competitors, despite acknowledging this 10% risk. their only real plan is to "hopefully solve the side effects as fast as possible, and then offer that chemical solution to our competitors". they have offered no explanation for why their competitors, the Chinese firms, or the rip offs would adopt their solution, even if it existed. their main explanation as to why they should continue developing the fertilizer is that as the most safety-minded firm, they should have as much market share as possible. they have publicly mused about getting the government to ban all of their competitors such that only they, and maybe one other manufacturer, have the exclusive license to distribute this fertilizer. they have offered no explanation as to how they would get the Chinese – or any other – government to cooperate with this plan. how would you react?
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