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Nikesh Arora
@nikesharora
Palo Alto Networks
가입 June 2009
1.7K 팔로잉 중    112.9K
Welcome to the second half of the year. The actions of hyperscalers in terms of their capital commitments will be key as the year proceeds, expect an uptick across the board, the demand is real. The flip side - the funding sources will need to be from the capital markets. The largest companies will flip to negative cash flow except for one or two. Hyperscalers have balance sheet capacity to do so (for 1-3 years), however new Frontier labs will need to go public, not sure there's more private market capital available to support their Capex needs. Of course, there's the chip guys, NVIDIA is at the party, will MU join the investment party to keep spending going? We still need visibility for when AI revenues will start to fund much of this cash need. Expect more advertising plays from LLMs, Token prices have to decline to drive Enterprise adoption. Expect LLMs to chase more vertical profit pools, legal, life science, expecting physical AI companies. Pure models will continue to see arbitrage with open source touching 30% usage, depth will create a better moat, breadth will commoditize. It's not a demand problem - "it's a monetization problem". Silicon valley has always built product with intensity and the market has funded adoption years. This time it might just be too big and the market may not have capacity to fund everyone. "Darwinian moment for AI providers?" If you are a founder, or a CEO - don't be distracted, focus on your product, how it gets better with AI. Eventually product and customer adoption will bring us to the other side, but expect a bit of a wild ride. We are still early in many PMF categories. Speed could create waste, but waiting and watching could leave us behind.
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