more on the nft > coins (in terms of game selection) idea
trading as a sport is where the puck is headed. the edge has become being terminally online, managing risk, and having the best info flow. not exactly a holder-friendly game, so I expect holders to opt out and look for different spots
this is where nfts get interesting. trading as a sport is fundamentally pvp, while nfts (and collectibles more broadly) are fundamentally more pve. nfts attract hobbyists who hold things because they actually like them, collectors who aren't constantly looking for an exit, and communities that want to participate beyond just looking for number go up
that difference in participants also creates a different time horizon. as coins have become more optimized, the game has gotten faster - everyone is looking for the next rotation and trying to exit before everyone else. nfts naturally slow that game down. illiquidity is usually treated as a flaw, but in the right conditions it can be a feature; less turnover gives attention and liquidity more time to concentrate
nfts were also one of the few assets that largely missed the last bull market, but we're starting to see signs of a revival led by eth outperformance. just looking at a few notable nft launches this cycle:
- stonkbrokers: free mint → 13e ath
- imd: free mint → 2.5e ath
- argonauts: .12e mint → .75e ath
- quotrons: sub .1e floor → 3.5e ath
you see 5-20x moves in coins almost daily; the difference here is the opportunity set. trenching gives you hundreds of things to bet on and very few worth owning; nfts give you far fewer things to bet on, but a much higher concentration of things actually worth owning. fewer spots, higher hit rates, more asymmetry
wasn't able to mint these, but got into both sb and imd pretty early, and they've been two of my better and easier recent onchain trades. neither is exclusively an nft project, but nfts are a core part of both and made the trades significantly more asymmetric
as the puck continues to move toward social trading and an increasingly pvp mindset, I think it makes sense to look for games that are structurally more pve. nfts are probably the clearest version of that, imo
tl;dr: coins mostly reward speed, nfts reward selection. different games that appeal to different types of people. there's a large pool of capital that wants onchain assets they can buy and hold without constantly worrying about being pvp'd or vamped. nfts are good assets for this, but a lot of ppl are still pretty jaded and scoff at the idea of playing nfts again. think that changes as more of these new launches continue to do well or as old collections reprice