Oguz Erkan(@oguzerkan):The real reason yields keep rising: The US debt. Hormuz traffic has recovered, and PCE inflation is cooling, but the yields won't come down. Because the US government is now refinancing $9 trillion a year with over $2 trillion in new borrowings. This means around $30 trillion in debt issuance through 2030. There are only three ways out: - Accelerating GDP growth - Cutting the budget deficit - Inflating it away over time Investors think the first two are unlikely, which makes inflation inevitable, so they don't want to accept lower yields. In other words, what's going up is the term premium itself. This is the textbook definition of a debt spiral.

2026.09.30 19:33

The real reason yields keep rising: The US debt. Hormuz traffic has recovered, and PCE inflation is cooling, but the yields won't come down. Because the US government is now refinancing $9 trillion a year with over $2 trillion in new borrowings. This means around $30 trillion in debt issuance through 2030. There are only three ways out: - Accelerating GDP growth - Cutting the budget deficit - Inflating it away over time Investors think the first two are unlikely, which makes inflation inevitable, so they don't want to accept lower yields. In other words, what's going up is the term premium itself. This is the textbook definition of a debt spiral.