Outlier Capital(@outliercapx):FYI — $75B in 2031 on $AAOI isn’t my bull case. It’s my base case if you actually read the mid-2027 slide. ~$471M/month DC optics = ~$5.65B annualized before 1.6T mix and own-laser/CPO content. Constraint = Texas InP + U.S. lines, not demand. 35–40% GM + mid-single-digit share of 1.6T/CPO and you don’t need heroics to get there. $LITE is already ~$83B and $COHR ~$62B on the same cycle. Street still prices $AAOI as a commodity transceiver. That’s the misprice. I’m positioned. NFA.

2026.09.20 18:31

FYI — $75B in 2031 on $AAOI isn’t my bull case. It’s my base case if you actually read the mid-2027 slide. ~$471M/month DC optics = ~$5.65B annualized before 1.6T mix and own-laser/CPO content. Constraint = Texas InP + U.S. lines, not demand. 35–40% GM + mid-single-digit share of 1.6T/CPO and you don’t need heroics to get there. $LITE is already ~$83B and $COHR ~$62B on the same cycle. Street still prices $AAOI as a commodity transceiver. That’s the misprice. I’m positioned. NFA.

Outlier Capital@outliercapx

2026.09.20 12:00

My prediction — $AAOI 2031 market cap: $75B. From $9B today. Mgmt’s own mid-2027 run-rate: ~$471M/month of data-center optics. That’s ~$5.6B annualized before mix shifts to 1.6T and own-laser content. Demand is not the constraint. Texas InP + U.S. capacity is. If they clear 35–40% Gross Margin with vertical lasers and hold even a mid-single-digit share of 1.6T/CPO modules, $75B from here is doable on a business the Street still models as “commodity transceiver.” I’m positioned. NFA.