This was a great article and I learned a lot from it. But while there's a lot of writing on robotics timelines, I've seen less on what happens once competent robots do inevitably arrive. US agriculture employment share dropped 50x because of mechanization. This is very different from the effect that automation has repeatedly been predicted to have — but failed to have — on white collar work. The reason is simple. Blue collar work is real work. There is a fixed, finite amount of it out there. So the effect of automation tends to be substitution. Besides, job displacement can happen without humanoids. Take warehouses. There are credible forecasts that by 2030, half of new warehouses will be built for primarily autonomous operation (much easier than replacing workers in existing warehouses with humanoid robots). After that, it takes 1-2 decades for the economics for force most existing warehouses to switch over. That's millions of jobs in the US alone. White collar jobs are extremely malleable in their definition and variable in demand. When AI starts to do what we used to do, we just switch to doing new stuff and redefine the job. And we produce lots more units of work. There's no real ceiling to the amount of software that can be written or legal work that can be done. I can't believe some "AI experts" tell young people to pursue blue collar occupations because AI will eat the white collar work. I want to pre-register that this will turn out to be exactly ass-backwards.