The most important number in the market today is the OpenAI Q3 ARR number. The trailing numbers had GAAP revenue of $6.7B in Q2, growing 18% q/q. This would point to sub 100% Y/Y growth, rapid deceleration and GAAP revenue under $30B for 2026.
Amazing numbers in any normal world but a company with those numbers will not buy $750B of compute by 2030 as OpenAI has promised to do. The result would be “bad” for the AI trade. That is why the company is (wisely) leaking strong July and Aug reacceleration numbers and analysts are crawling through CFO comments like Kremlinologists of old trying to figure out what “35% quarter to date growth” means. Are we back to 3x plus Y/Y growth?
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