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Sean
@sean_________
TMT catalyst/event-driven trader with a focus on research.
가입 May 2019
3K 팔로잉 중    9.3K
Mizuho on SemiAnalysis (rumor mill) channel checks: "Significant Feynman de-spec risk (potentially ~50%). 16/20Hi HBM + hybrid bonding still highly uncertain. GOOGL already scaled TPUv8 HBM3e to 8Hi." "Lower HBM content per GPU/ASIC = 20-30% more shipments possible. Aggregate DRAM bit demand for training/inference/KVCache actually rises. Better GPU/ASIC margins." "That extra silicon volume is pure upside for copper AEC, NPO, SiPho/InP. $CRDO and $LITE the clearest beneficiaries. CPO still 2-3 years out." "800V looks delayed — data centers pushing back hard on rapid power architecture change + staff retraining. Moving to OCP ORv3 Diablo 400V bipolar instead. More VRMs, smoother ramp." "2027 is still a monster year: xAI/ $SPCX 10GW + the $500B Neocloud financing facility = real tailwind. $GOOGL morphing into a major Neocloud supplier with accelerating TPU ramps. Mizuho modestly cuts PTs ( $MU $1,300 / $SNDK $1,875 / AMAT $590 / MKSI $330 / LRCX $365) on multiple compression from the de-spec uncertainty — but still sees memory tight and overall bit demand higher. Net: de-spec is real, but it unlocks more systems, more copper, more optics, and keeps the 2027 power + financing flywheel intact.
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