in the whole optimism as performative mantra many ppl often forget a very very simple truth which is that to understand the future you first have to be brutally realistic about the present (i.e. you cannot be optimistic about the present!) to be good at this you need to understand the world as it actually exists, why it became this way, which incentives sustain it, & which forces are beginning to break it apart or cause it to change. then you need optimism about tomorrow. i’m not talking blind optimism (that’s foolish), but the ability to see what could exist once all of these forces fully play out. this is why great investors for example are unusually good at holding both of these complex realities at once. clear realism about today & optimism about tomorrow. it’s more important than ever to dissect the present without sentimentality so you could place bets for tomorrow.